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Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Aviat
  • Frédérique Bec
  • Claude Diebolt
  • Catherine Doz
  • Denis Ferrand
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Éric Heyer
  • Valérie Mignon
  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier

Abstract

This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Éric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2023. "Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 74(2), pages 5-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_742_0005
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    Keywords

    business cycles; French economy; dating; narrative approach; econometric modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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