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Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises: Does Representativeness Cause Overreaction?

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  • Michael Kaestner

Abstract

Behavioral Finance aims to explain empirical anomalies by introducing investor psychology as a determinant of asset pricing. Two kinds of anomalies, namely underreaction and overreaction, have been established by an impressive record of empirical work. While underreaction defines a slow adjustment of prices to corporate events or announcements, overreaction deals with extreme stock price reactions to previous information or past performance. This study investigates current and past earnings surprises for listed US companies over the period 1983-1999. It provides evidence that investors exhibit long-term overreaction to past, highly unexpected, earnings surprises. Investors tend to overestimate (underestimate) future earnings after extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises. As, on average, these extreme past surprises are not confirmed by subsequent earnings figures, they are followed by a correction of the initial overreaction at the date of the subsequent earnings announcement. Moreover, the longer the similar earnings surprise series, the higher the subsequent correction, suggesting that representativeness may cause this overreaction phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kaestner, 2006. "Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises: Does Representativeness Cause Overreaction?," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 27(2), pages 5-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:finpug:fina_272_0005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    2. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
    3. Boussaidi, Ramzi & AlSaggaf, Majid Ibrahim, 2022. "Contrarian profits and representativeness heuristic in the MENA stock markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Sri Sundari & Mediaty & Abdul Hamid Habbe & Harryanto, 2018. "Heuristic of Representativeness and Anchoring-Adjustment in Budgeting," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 52-60, October.
    5. Iuliia Brushko, 2013. "Financial Signaling and Earnings Forecasts," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp498, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Rajdeep Kumar Raut & Niladri Das & Ramkrishna Mishra, 2020. "Behaviour of Individual Investors in Stock Market Trading: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 818-833, June.
    7. Francesco Cerigioni, 2016. "Dual decision processes and noise trading," Economics Working Papers 1553, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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