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A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions

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  • Myers Bret R.

    (Villanova University)

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    Abstract

    Managers in soccer face a critical in-game decision concerning player substitutions. While past research has investigated the overall effect of various strategy changes during the course of a match, no studies have focused solely on the crucial element of timing. This paper uses the data mining technique of decision trees to develop a decision rule to guide managers on when to make each of their three substitutes in a match. The proposed decision rule demonstrates between 38% and 47% effectiveness when followed versus 17% and 24% effectiveness when not followed based on over 1200 observations collected from some of the world’s top professional leagues and competitions.

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    File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas.2012.8.issue-1/1559-0410.1349/1559-0410.1349.xml?format=INT
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 1-24

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    Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:1:n:11

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    Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

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