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A Regression-Based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players

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  • Macdonald Brian

    (United States Military Academy)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to develop an adjusted plus-minus statistic for NHL players that is independent of both teammates and opponents. We use data from the shift reports on NHL.com in a weighted least squares regression to estimate an NHL player's effect on his team's success in scoring and preventing goals at even strength. Both offensive and defensive components of adjusted plus-minus are given, estimates in terms of goals per 60 minutes and goals per season are given, and estimates for forwards and defensemen are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Macdonald Brian, 2011. "A Regression-Based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-31, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:4
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Andrew C, 2006. "The Impact of Puck Possession and Location on Ice Hockey Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Macdonald Brian, 2012. "Adjusted Plus-Minus for NHL Players using Ridge Regression with Goals, Shots, Fenwick, and Corsi," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Sabin R. Paul, 2021. "Estimating player value in American football using plus–minus models," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 313-364, December.
    3. Lim, Alejandro & Chiang, Chin-Tsang & Teng, Jen-Chieh, 2021. "Estimating robot strengths with application to selection of alliance members in FIRST robotics competitions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Yurko Ronald & Ventura Samuel & Horowitz Maksim, 2019. "nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 163-183, September.
    5. Ehrlich Justin & Sanders Shane & Boudreaux Christopher J., 2019. "The relative wages of offense and defense in the NBA: a setting for win-maximization arbitrage?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 213-224, September.
    6. Brander James A. & Yeung Louisa & Egan Edward J., 2014. "Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Yurko Ronald & Ventura Samuel & Horowitz Maksim, 2019. "nflWAR: a reproducible method for offensive player evaluation in football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 163-183, September.
    8. Shankar Ghimire & Justin A Ehrlich & Shane D Sanders, 2020. "Measuring individual worker output in a complementary team setting: Does regularized adjusted plus minus isolate individual NBA player contributions?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, August.

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