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Estimación del Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio para Bolivia

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  • María Angélica Aguilar Marquez

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

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    Abstract

    La estimación del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio para distintas economías es un tema constantemente abordado en la literatura económica. Los trabajos empíricos de esta naturaleza intentan determinar si el tipo de cambio real se encuentra desalineado respecto a su nivel de equilibrio con el propósito de que las autoridades elijan cómo corregir los desvíos en la medida en que resulten importantes. El estudio estimó el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio para Bolivia con base en sus fundamentos para el período 1990-2002 empleando modelos de corrección de errores. Los resultados encontrados permiten diferenciar el comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en dos períodos: en el primero (1990-1995), éste experimentó desalineamientos de relativa importancia (sobrevaluaciones y subvaluaciones) pero de corta duración. En el segundo, a partir de 1996, su trayectoria siguió muy de cerca a la del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio, con pequeños desvíos transitorios. A fines de 2002, el boliviano habría estado subvaluado aproximadamente en 3%.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 41-71

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    Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:41-71

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    Keywords: tipo de cambio real de equilibrio; desalineamiento; modelos de corrección de errores; Bolivia;

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