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Does Outsourcing to Central and Eastern Europe Really Threaten Manual Workers' Jobs in Germany?

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  • Ingo Geishecker
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    Abstract

    Starting from the observation of significant within-industry skill-upgrading, this paper analyses how international outsourcing has affected the relative demand for manual workers in German manufacturing during the 1990s. We combine trade and input-output data to disentangle international outsourcing and trade in final goods and differentiate between the effects of narrowly and broadly defined outsourcing towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC), the European Union (EU15) and the rest of the world. Accounting for the endogeneity of international outsourcing by applying instrumental variable techniques, the empirical analysis showed that international outsourcing is indeed an important explanatory factor for the observed decline in relative demand for manual workers in German manufacturing. Particularly, outsourcing towards CEEC plays a major role, irrespective of whether a narrow or wide measure of outsourcing is applied. Using a narrow outsourcing measure and controlling for the adverse demand effects of skill-biased technological change, time-changing industry characteristics, wages as well as industry unobserved characteristics, international outsourcing towards CEEC is found to have lowered the manual workers' wage bill share by 2.7 per-centage points between 1991 and 2000. In its magnitude this effect is comparable to the skill-biased effect of technological progress, as captured by our controls. Outsourcing towards countries outside CEEC and outside the EU15 is found to have small negative effects on the relative demand for manual workers, but only if one follows the broad definition of international outsourcing. Outsourcing towards the EU15 is, however, always found to be insignificant. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 5 (05)
    Pages: 559-583

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:5:p:559-583

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    Cited by:
    1. Lena Jacobi & Sandra Schaffner, 2008. "Does Marginal Employment Substitute Regular Employment? – A Heterogeneous Dynamic Labor Demand Approach for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0056, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Ingo Geishecker & Ingo Geishecker & Jakob Roland Munch, 2007. "Do Labour Market Institutions Matter? Micro-level Wage Effects of International Outsourcing in Three European Countries," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-03, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Gerards Ruud & Grip Andries de & Witlox Maaike, 2012. "Employability-miles and worker employability awareness," ROA Research Memorandum 010, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    4. Thomas Beissinger & Nathalie Chusseau & Joel Hellier, 2014. "Offshoring, employment, labour market reform and inequality: Modelling the German experience," Working Papers 330, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Koskela, Erkki & König, Jan, 2011. "The Role of Profit Sharing in Dual Labour Markets with Flexible Outsourcing," IZA Discussion Papers 5798, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Alessia Lo Turco & Aleksandra Parteka, 2009. "Empirical investigation on labour market interactions in an enlarged Europe," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 40(1), pages 87-105.
    7. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Canals, Claudia & Şener, Fuat, 2014. "Offshoring and intellectual property rights reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-31.
    9. Geishecker, Ingo, 2008. "The impact of international outsourcing on individual employment security: A micro-level analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, June.
    10. Ben Salha, Ousama, 2013. "Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 572-597.
    11. Curran, Louise & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "EU enlargement and the evolution of European production networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 240-257.
    12. Böckerman, Petri & Riihimäki, Elisa, 2009. "International outsourcing and labour demand: Evidence from Finnish firm-level data," MPRA Paper 16903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jan Hogrefe & Yao Yao, 2012. "Offshoring and Labor Income Risk: An Empirical Investigation," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 515, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Geishecker, Ingo & Riedl, Maximilian & Frijters, Paul, 2012. "Offshoring and job loss fears: An econometric analysis of individual perceptions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 738-747.
    15. Rosario Crinò, 2007. "Offshoring, Multinationals and Labor Market: A Review of the Empirical Literature," KITeS Working Papers 196, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2007.

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