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Lessons from a large‐scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model

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  • Steve Peterson
  • Brian Bush
  • Daniel Inman
  • Emily Newes
  • Amy Schwab
  • Dana Stright
  • Laura Vimmerstedt

Abstract

The biomass scenario model (BSM) is a dynamic model of the biomass‐to‐biofuels supply chain in the U.S.A., developed during a multi‐year analysis effort conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under sponsorship from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). The BSM project, which received the 2018 Applications Award by the International System Dynamics Society, has supported collaborative analyses, developed scenarios for industry development and facilitated stakeholder engagement. We summarize insights gained from the BSM project that may be useful to other large‐scale dynamic modeling efforts. We summarize the project focus, the analysis process, key outcomes and observations on successful execution of such a product. Key points include the value of a multidisciplinary team with clear roles, engagement of experts and stakeholders, and use and reuse of simple, modular structures. The overall effort suggests that these practices may aid long‐term, team‐focused, multi‐stakeholder modeling efforts. © 2019 System Dynamics Society

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Peterson & Brian Bush & Daniel Inman & Emily Newes & Amy Schwab & Dana Stright & Laura Vimmerstedt, 2019. "Lessons from a large‐scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 35(1), pages 55-69, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:55-69
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1620
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    Cited by:

    1. Birgit Kopainsky & Anita Frehner & Adrian Müller, 2020. "Sustainable and healthy diets: Synergies and trade‐offs in Switzerland," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 908-927, November.
    2. Daniel Inman & Brian Bush & Emily Newes & Corey Peck & Steven Peterson, 2020. "A technique for generating supply and demand curves from system dynamics models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(3), pages 373-384, July.
    3. Newes, Emily & Clark, Christopher M. & Vimmerstedt, Laura & Peterson, Steve & Burkholder, Dallas & Korotney, David & Inman, Daniel, 2022. "Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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