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The spatial dynamics of invasive species spread

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  • Todd K. BenDor
  • Sara S. Metcalf

Abstract

The problem of invasive species spread requires timely analysis of the biological dynamics that lead to spatial dispersion. Here, a spatial dynamic model captures the invasive behavior of the recently introduced emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) and its impacts on host ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees. Parasite–host system dynamics are extended spatially using the Spatial Modeling Environment. The resulting model can serve as a repository for changing knowledge about EAB biology and behavior. Studies of the rapid EAB infestation in Michigan are used to inform simulations of its spread in DuPage County, Illinois, USA. We use a geographic information system to create heterogeneous host landscapes and to test alternative policy scenarios. We test the effectiveness of three suppression scenarios: the Michigan eradication strategy, firewood quarantines, and ash tree thinning. Simulations demonstrate that EAB spatial spread accelerates with degraded host capacity, with results pointing to firewood quarantines as the most effective solution. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd K. BenDor & Sara S. Metcalf, 2006. "The spatial dynamics of invasive species spread," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 27-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:22:y:2006:i:1:p:27-50
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.328
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    Cited by:

    1. François Rebaudo & Verónica Crespo-Pérez & Jean-François Silvain & Olivier Dangles, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of Human-Induced Spread of Invasive Species in Agricultural Landscapes: Insights from the Potato Moth in Ecuador," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 14(3), pages 1-7.
    2. Lee, Chun-Lin & Huang, Shu-Li & Chan, Shih-Liang, 2009. "Synthesis and spatial dynamics of socio-economic metabolism and land use change of Taipei Metropolitan Region," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2940-2959.
    3. Beall, Allyson & Zeoli, Len, 2008. "Participatory modeling of endangered wildlife systems: Simulating the sage-grouse and land use in Central Washington," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 24-33, December.
    4. McDermott, Shana M. & Finnoff, David C., 2016. "Impact of repeated human introductions and the Allee effect on invasive species spread," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 100-111.

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