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Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy

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  • Mehmet Gurses
  • T. David Mason

Abstract

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post‐civil‐war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity‐based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post‐civil‐war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peace‐keeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Gurses & T. David Mason, 2008. "Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(2), pages 315-336, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:89:y:2008:i:2:p:315-336
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2008.00534.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Gurses & Nicolas Rost, 2013. "Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 469-491, November.
    2. Janina Isabel Steinert & Sonja Grimm, 2015. "Too good to be true? United Nations peacebuilding and the democratization of war-torn states," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 513-535, November.
    3. John Ishiyama, 2014. "Civil Wars and Party Systems," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(2), pages 425-447, June.
    4. T. Clark Durant & Michael Weintraub, 2014. "How to make democracy self-enforcing after civil war: Enabling credible yet adaptable elite pacts," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(5), pages 521-540, November.
    5. Tridimas, George, 2011. "The political economy of power-sharing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 328-342, June.
    6. Felix Haass, 2021. "The democracy dilemma. Aid, power-sharing governments, and post-conflict democratization," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 200-223, March.
    7. Adedokun, Ayokunu, 2017. "Post-conflict peacebuilding: A critical survey of the literature and avenues for future research," MERIT Working Papers 2017-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Armey, Laura E. & McNab, Robert M., 2012. "Democratization and civil war," MPRA Paper 42460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jennifer Raymond Dresden, 2017. "From combatants to candidates: Electoral competition and the legacy of armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 240-263, May.
    10. Jessica Maves Braithwaite & Joseph M Cox & Margaret Farry, 2022. "Tactics of resistance and post-conflict judicial independence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(6), pages 779-793, November.

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