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A Model Of An Opportunistic‐Partisan Political Business Cycle

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  • Gernot Sieg

Abstract

According to political business cycle theory, separate opportunistic and partisan approaches exist. It is obvious, as seen from theoretical and empirical points of view, that politicians aim for both opportunistic as well as partisan goals. This paper presents a model of a pre‐election political business cycle that manifests an indication of competence and a post‐election political business cycle that occurs because of the uncertainty of an election's winner monetary policy. In the pre‐election period competent governments expand the economy. The post‐election cycle depends on whether a leftist or a conservative government is in power in the pre‐election period, and if they are re‐elected or not.

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  • Gernot Sieg, 2006. "A Model Of An Opportunistic‐Partisan Political Business Cycle," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 242-252, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:53:y:2006:i:2:p:242-252
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2006.00378.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Stone, Joe A. & Jacobs, David, 2020. "Presidential party affiliation and electoral cycles in the U.S. economy: Evidence from party changes in adjacent terms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Sieg Gernot & Stegemann Ulrike, 2010. "Strategic Debt Management within the Stability and Growth Pact," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 61(3), pages 225-240, December.
    3. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2020. "A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79, March.
    4. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
    5. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 14270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Findley, T. Scott, 2015. "Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
    7. Peter Kukuk & Adam Gersl, 2011. "Political Pressure on the National Bank of Slovakia," Working Papers IES 2011/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2011.
    8. Niklas Potrafke, 2006. "Parties Matter in Allocating Expenditures: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 652, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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