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Empirical Asset Pricing: Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller

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  • John Y. Campbell

Abstract

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for 2013 was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller for their contributions to the empirical study of asset pricing. Some observers have found it hard to understand the common elements of the laureates' research, preferring to highlight areas of disagreement among them. In this paper, I argue that empirical asset pricing is a coherent enterprise, which owes much to the laureates' influential contributions, and that important themes in the literature can best be understood by considering the laureates in pairs. Specifically, after summarizing modern asset-pricing theory using the stochastic discount factor as an organizing framework, I discuss the following: the joint hypothesis problem in tests of market efficiency, which is as much an opportunity as a problem (Fama and Hansen); patterns of short- and long-term predictability in asset returns (Fama and Shiller); and models of deviations from rational expectations (Hansen and Shiller). I conclude by reviewing the ways in which the laureates have already influenced the practice of finance, and how they might influence future innovations.

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  • John Y. Campbell, 2014. "Empirical Asset Pricing: Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 593-634, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:116:y:2014:i:3:p:593-634
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    Cited by:

    1. Othmar M. Lehner, 2014. "Finance, risk and accounting perspectives," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 185-188, July.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Plamen T. Nenov & Alp Simsek, 2021. "Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1613-1657, May.
    4. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "Methods of Economic Theory: Variables, Transactions and Expectations as Functions of Risks," MPRA Paper 95628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    6. Gyorgy Varga & Ricardo Dias de Oliveira Brito, 2016. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 14(2), pages 151-187.
    7. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Olena Tymoshenko & Оlena Trokhymets, 2019. "Mechanism Of Behavioural Economics," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 5(2).
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "A Risk-Centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1493-1566.
    11. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Price and Payoff Autocorrelations in the Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model," MPRA Paper 112255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
    14. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2019. "Prudential Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory I. Assumptions, Economic Space and Variables," MPRA Paper 93085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New essentials of economic theory II. Economic transactions, expectations and asset pricing," MPRA Paper 93428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. GHERBOVEȚ, Sergiu, 2017. "The Poorest In The World Pays For Crisis," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 4(1), pages 141-148.
    18. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    19. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    20. O. Karapaev, 2015. "Some Stylized Facts About Analyst Errors," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(2), pages 46-51.
    21. Victor Olkhov, 2019. "Financial Variables, Market Transactions, and Expectations as Functions of Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-27, November.
    22. John Fender, 2015. "Towards a General Theory of the Stock Market," Discussion Papers 15-15, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    23. Djoumbissie David Romain, 2020. "Predicting S&P500 Index direction with Transfer Learning and a Causal Graph as main Input," Papers 2011.13113, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    24. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
    25. Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Ms. Celine Rochon & Julieta Yung, 2020. "Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment," IMF Working Papers 2020/053, International Monetary Fund.

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