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Estimates Of Household Sector Wealth For South Africa, 1970-2003

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  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

Market values of components of household sector wealth are important explanatory variables for aggregate consumer expenditure and household debt in macro-econometric models. We construct the first coherent set of the main elements of household-sector balance sheet estimates at market value for South Africa. Our quarterly estimates derive from published data on financial flows, and other capital market data, often at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. Relating asset to income ratios for various asset classes to asset price movements and other features of the economic environment, throws light on the changing composition of household sector wealth. Most striking are the relative rise in the value of pension wealth and the trend decline of directly held securities, the decline and recent recovery of housing wealth, and the rise in household debt and concomitant decline of liquid assets from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. Copyright � 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation � International Association for Research in Income and Wealth 2006.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in its journal Review of Income and Wealth.

Volume (Year): 52 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 285-307

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Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:52:y:2006:i:2:p:285-307

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Cited by:
  1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Prinsloo, Johan, 2006. "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: South Africa 1975-2003," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) RP2006/99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Muellbauer, John, 2008. "Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages S161-S196, October.
  4. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Housing wealth, credit conditions and consumption," MPRA Paper 24485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Johan van den Heever, 2007. "Household debt, interest rates and insolvencies in South Africa," IFC Bulletins chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 52-61 Bank for International Settlements.

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