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Egypt’s Growth Performance Under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment With New GDP Estimates, 1886–1945

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  • Tarik M. Yousef

Abstract

The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money–based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypt’s intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886–1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypt’s growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles.

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  • Tarik M. Yousef, 2002. "Egypt’s Growth Performance Under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment With New GDP Estimates, 1886–1945," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(4), pages 561-579, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:48:y:2002:i:4:p:561-579
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4991.00068
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    Cited by:

    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Yuzuru Kumon & Mohamed Saleh, 2023. "The Middle‐Eastern marriage pattern? Malthusian dynamics in nineteenth‐century Egypt," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1231-1258, November.
    4. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2010. "Improving Human Development: A Long‐Run View," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 841-894, December.
    5. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2013. "Human development in Africa: A long-run perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-204.
    6. Van Leeuwen, Bas & van Leeuwen-Li, Jieli & Foldvari, Peter, 2012. "Education as a driver of income inequality in twentieth-century Africa," MPRA Paper 43574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Panza, Laura, 2020. "From a common empire to colonial rule: commodity market disintegration in the Near East," CEPR Discussion Papers 15434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Mohamed Saleh, 2021. "The middle east : decline and resurgence in west Asia," Post-Print hal-03546704, HAL.

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