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The Inventory–Sales Relationship in the Market for New Single‐Family Homes

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  • Barry Falk
  • Bong‐Soo Lee

Abstract

Time series methods are applied to study monthly inventory and sales dynamics in the U.S. market for new single‐family homes. The inventory measure used is the inventory of unsold, new single‐family homes, regardless of the stage of construction. Stylized facts regarding inventory, sales, the inventory–sales ratio and the implied series of speculative housing starts are produced. Implications for structural models of housing supply and the relationship of inventory investment in this market to economy‐wide inventory investment are considered. Finally, innovation accounting methods are applied to a structural VAR to study the responses of inventories and sales to permanent and transitory shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Falk & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2004. "The Inventory–Sales Relationship in the Market for New Single‐Family Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 645-672, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:4:p:645-672
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00106.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    2. Edward P. Lazear, 2010. "Why Do Inventories Rise When Demand Falls in Housing and Other Markets?," NBER Working Papers 15878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Peter Chinloy & Zhonghua Wu, 2013. "The Inventory-Sales Ratio and Homebuilder Return Predictability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 397-423, April.
    5. Pedro M. M. L. Garcês & Cesaltina Pacheco Pires, 2011. "New housing supply: what do we know and how can we learn more?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_18, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    6. Brent W. Ambrose & Joe Peek, 2008. "Credit Availability and the Structure of the Homebuilding Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 659-692, December.

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