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The Cross Section of Expected REIT Returns

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  • Andy C. W. Chui
  • Sheridan Titman
  • K. C. John Wei

Abstract

In this study, we examine the cross-sectional determinants of expected REIT returns. We examine both the pre- and post-1990 periods, since the structure of the REIT market changed substantially around 1990. The determinants of expected returns differ between the two subperiods. In the pre-1990 subperiod, momentum, size, turnover and analyst coverage predict REIT returns. In the post-1990 period, momentum is the dominant predictor of REIT returns. Given the strength of the momentum effect in the post-1990 period, we examine it in great detail. For the whole period, and for the post-1990 period where the momentum profit is strongest, our evidence is generally consistent with the studies on common stocks other than REITs. The only striking exception is that we find that momentum is stronger for the larger REITs rather than for the smaller REITs. In our multiple regressions that include the characteristics as well as interactions between past returns and firm characteristics, the turnover-momentum interaction effect provides the most significant results. More specifically, momentum effects are stronger for more liquid REITs. Copyright 2003 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 451-479

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:31:y:2003:i:3:p:451-479

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Cited by:
  1. Crystal Lin & Hamid Rahman & Kenneth Yung, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 450-471, November.
  2. Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Barbara Petracci & Massimo Spisni, 2011. "Fee Structure, Financing, and Investment Decisions: The Case of REITs," Working Paper Series 30_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Haiwei Chen & Ansley Chua & Changha Jin, 2013. "Analyst Forecasting Errors in REITs," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 48-67.
  4. Cheng Wee Tan & Dogan Tirtiroglu & Ercan Tirtiroglu, 2013. "Reits' Growth Options and Asset Pricing Dynamics across Time," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1303, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  5. Thomas C. Chiang & Hooi Hooi Lean & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Do REITs Outperform Stocks and Fixed-Income Assets? New Evidence from Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-40, December.
  6. Joseph Ooi & Jingliang Wang & James Webb, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Risk and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 420-442, May.
  7. Joseph T.L. Ooi & James R. Webb & Dingding Zhou, 2007. "Extrapolation Theory and the Pricing of REIT Stocks," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(1), pages 27-56.

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