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Gains From Diversifying Into Real Estate: Three Decades of Portfolio Returns Based on the Dynamic Investment Model

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  • Robert R. Grauer
  • Nils H. Hakansson
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    Abstract

    This paper compares the investment policies and returns for portfolios of stocks and bonds with and without up to three categories of real estate. Both domestic and global settings are examined, with and without the possibility of leverage. The portfolios were generated via the dynamic investment model based on the empirical probability assessment approach applied to past (joint) realizations of returns, both with and without correction for "smoothing" in the real estate data series. Our principal findings are: (1) the gains from adding real estate, on a semi-passive (equal-weighted) basis, to portfolios of either U.S. or global financial assets were relatively modest; in contrast, (2) the gains from adding real estate to the universe of U.S. financial assets under an active strategy were rather large (in some cases highly statistically significant), especially for the very risk-averse strategies; (3) the gains from adding U.S. real estate to a universe of global financial assets under an active strategy were mixed, although generally favorable for the highly risk-averse strategies; (4) correcting for second-moment smoothing in the real estate returns series had a relatively small impact for the more risk-tolerant strategies; and (5) there was some evidence that desmoothing resulted in improved probability estimates. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 23 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 117-159

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:23:y:1995:i:2:p:117-159

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    Cited by:
    1. Hagelin, Niclas & Pramborg, Bengt, 2004. "Dynamic investment strategies with and without emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 193-215, June.
    2. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Stephen Satchell & David Damant & Soosung Hwang, 2000. "Exponential risk measure with application to UK asset allocation," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 127-152.
    4. Michael J. Seiler & Arjun Chatrath & James R. Webb, 2001. "Real Asset Ownership and the Risk and Return to Stockholders," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 22(1/2), pages 199-212.
    5. Neal Maroney & Atsuyuki Naka, 2006. "Diversification Benefits of Japanese Real Estate Over the Last Four Decades," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 259-274, November.
    6. Robert R. Grauer and Nils H. Hakansson., 1998. "Applying the Grinblatt-Titman and the Conditional (Ferson-Schadt) Performance Measures: The Case of Industry Rotation Via the Dynamic Investment Model," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-277, University of California at Berkeley.

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