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Oil price volatility, fiscal policy and economic growth: a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis of some selected oil-exporting African countries

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  • Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi
  • Festus O. Egwaikhide

Abstract

Fiscal policy in oil-centred economies is facing specific challenges, both in the long run, as regards intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability, and in the short run, as regards macroeconomic stabilisation and fiscal planning. Specifically, fiscal policy in most oil-exporting countries in Africa has been expansionary over the past years in the wake of high oil prices. Fiscal expansion has added to inflationary pressure, and monetary policy has been constrained in tackling inflation as a result of prevailing exchange rate regimes. The sharp fall in oil prices since mid-2008 has brought to the fore a different question—whether oil exporters in Africa can sustain spending levels reached in previous years. The study makes use of quarterly data that span between 1990:q1 and 2010:q4. A panel vector autoregressive technique was employed to examine the impact of oil price volatility on economic performance of five oil-exporting countries in Africa. The countries are Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria. In order to study the responses of shocks, the study identifies oil price volatility, real gross domestic product (real GDP), fiscal deficit, gross investment and money supply shocks by ordering the variables in this way and using a standard Choleski factorisation. The impulse response function's result shows that of all the macroeconomic variables considered, gross investment respond more effectively to oil price volatility. However, the responses of fiscal deficit, real GDP and money supply are less effective. Overall, these findings suggest that gross investment is the main route through which volatility in oil price influenced the real sector of these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2014. "Oil price volatility, fiscal policy and economic growth: a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis of some selected oil-exporting African countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(2), pages 127-148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:38:y:2014:i:2:p:127-148
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    Cited by:

    1. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, external debt and exchange rate regimes," CAMA Working Papers 2020-110, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Abubakar, Attahir Babaji & Muhammad, Mansur & Mensah, Samuel, 2023. "Response of fiscal efforts to oil price dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Valliammai Raghavan & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2021. "Impact of commodity price volatility on external debt: the role of exchange rate regimes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6626-6640, December.
    4. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
    5. Mahmoud Kraim & Tamat Sarmidi & Fathin Faizah & Norlin Khalid, 2023. "A sectoral specification of Okun’s law in oil-producing countries: evidence from panel ARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2385-2404, August.
    6. Cheratian, Iman & Goltabar, Saleh, 2017. "Energy Consumption and Regional Economic Growth: The Case of Iranian Manufacturing Sector," MPRA Paper 78315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fuad Mammadov & Shaig Adigozalov, 2017. "Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations?," Working Papers 1703, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    8. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.
    9. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Chinazaekpere Nwani & Eugene Iheanacho & Chijioke Okogbue, 2016. "Oil price and the development of financial intermediation in developing oil-exporting countries: Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1185237-118, December.
    13. Engy Raouf Abdel Fattah, 2017. "Natural Resource Rents and Unemployment in Oil Exporting Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(10), pages 952-958, October.
    14. Pazouki, Azadeh & Zhu, Xiaoxian, 2022. "The dynamic impact among oil dependence volatility, the quality of political institutions, and government spending," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Asrori Asrori & Muhammad Ihlashul Amal & Atta Putra Harjanto, 2019. "Company Characteristics on the Corporate Social Reporting Index of Corporate Social and Environmental Disclosure in Indonesian Public Companies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 481-488.

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