Business Conditions and Speculative Assets
AbstractThis paper examines the hypothesis that the predictable components of U.K. shares and bonds are related to business conditions. Financial market variables, such as maturity and default premia, are constructed in an attempt to capture different components of business-conditions risk. The hypothesis is investigated using multivariate regression analysis and a latent variable model. One of the main conclusions reached in this paper is that the time-varying component of U.K. share and bond excess returns tend to exhibit varying degrees of sensitivity to information on business conditions as captured ex ante by a number of financial variables. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.
Volume (Year): 65 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
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Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/disciplines/economics/
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- Patricia Fraser & Andrew McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62.
- Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
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