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Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

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  • Diana Weinhold
  • Eustaquio J. Reis

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa. Copyright 2001 Blackwell Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 41 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 639-657

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:41:y:2001:i:4:p:639-657

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Cited by:
  1. Kovacs, Kent F., 2005. "Amount and Spatial Distribution of Public Open Space to Maximize the Net Benefits from Urban Recreation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19206, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The nexus between economic freedom and growth: Evidence from CEE countries in transition," MPRA Paper 37434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The Nexus between Improvements in Economic Freedom and Growth: Evidence from CEE Countries in Transition," MPRA Paper 52260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2002. "The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 355-369, November.
  5. Weslem Faria & Alexandre Almeida, 2011. "Agricultural Expansion, Openness to Trade and Deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1013, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "Two deficits and economic growth: Case of CEE countries in transition," MPRA Paper 52257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Salvador Perez-Moreno, 2011. "Financial development and poverty in developing countries: a causal analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 57-80, August.

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