IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v183y2020i4p1777-1792.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causes of effects via a Bayesian model selection procedure

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Corradi
  • Monica Musio

Abstract

In causal inference, and specifically in the causes‐of‐effects problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and in particular how to assess the so‐called probability of causation. The answer involves the use of potential responses, which describe what would have happened to the outcome if we had observed a different value for the exposure. However, even given the best possible statistical evidence for the association between exposure and outcome, we can typically only provide bounds for the probability of causation. Dawid and his colleagues highlighted some fundamental conditions, namely exogeneity, comparability and sufficiency, that are required to obtain such bounds from experimental data. The aim of the present paper is to provide methods to find, in specific cases, the best subsample of the reference data set to satisfy these requirements. For this, we introduce a new variable, expressing the preference whether or not to be exposed, and we set the question up as a model selection problem. The best model is selected by using the marginal probability of the responses and a suitable prior over the model space. An application in the educational field is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Corradi & Monica Musio, 2020. "Causes of effects via a Bayesian model selection procedure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(4), pages 1777-1792, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:183:y:2020:i:4:p:1777-1792
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12560
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rssa.12560?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiahua Chen & Zehua Chen, 2008. "Extended Bayesian information criteria for model selection with large model spaces," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(3), pages 759-771.
    2. Teppei Yamamoto, 2012. "Understanding the Past: Statistical Analysis of Causal Attribution," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 237-256, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2013. "Why ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions," NBER Working Papers 19614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frommlet, Florian & Ruhaltinger, Felix & Twaróg, Piotr & Bogdan, Małgorzata, 2012. "Modified versions of Bayesian Information Criterion for genome-wide association studies," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 1038-1051.
    3. Zak-Szatkowska, Malgorzata & Bogdan, Malgorzata, 2011. "Modified versions of the Bayesian Information Criterion for sparse Generalized Linear Models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(11), pages 2908-2924, November.
    4. Gaorong Li & Liugen Xue & Heng Lian, 2012. "SCAD-penalised generalised additive models with non-polynomial dimensionality," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 681-697.
    5. Xiaotong Shen & Wei Pan & Yunzhang Zhu & Hui Zhou, 2013. "On constrained and regularized high-dimensional regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(5), pages 807-832, October.
    6. Emre Demirkaya & Yang Feng & Pallavi Basu & Jinchi Lv, 2022. "Large-scale model selection in misspecified generalized linear models [Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle]," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 109(1), pages 123-136.
    7. Shan Luo & Zehua Chen, 2014. "Sequential Lasso Cum EBIC for Feature Selection With Ultra-High Dimensional Feature Space," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1229-1240, September.
    8. Lu Tang & Ling Zhou & Peter X. K. Song, 2019. "Fusion learning algorithm to combine partially heterogeneous Cox models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 395-414, March.
    9. Lian, Heng & Du, Pang & Li, YuanZhang & Liang, Hua, 2014. "Partially linear structure identification in generalized additive models with NP-dimensionality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 197-208.
    10. Molly C. Klanderman & Kathryn B. Newhart & Tzahi Y. Cath & Amanda S. Hering, 2020. "Fault isolation for a complex decentralized waste water treatment facility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(4), pages 931-951, August.
    11. Tang, Yanlin & Song, Xinyuan & Wang, Huixia Judy & Zhu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Variable selection in high-dimensional quantile varying coefficient models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 115-132.
    12. Li, Yujie & Li, Gaorong & Lian, Heng & Tong, Tiejun, 2017. "Profile forward regression screening for ultra-high dimensional semiparametric varying coefficient partially linear models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 133-150.
    13. Yunxiao Chen & Xiaoou Li & Jingchen Liu & Zhiliang Ying, 2017. "Regularized Latent Class Analysis with Application in Cognitive Diagnosis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 660-692, September.
    14. Li, Xinyi & Wang, Li & Nettleton, Dan, 2019. "Sparse model identification and learning for ultra-high-dimensional additive partially linear models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 204-228.
    15. Jones, Benjamin A., 2018. "Forest-attacking Invasive Species and Infant Health: Evidence From the Invasive Emerald Ash Borer," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 282-293.
    16. Zhaoliang Wang & Liugen Xue & Gaorong Li & Fei Lu, 2019. "Spline estimator for ultra-high dimensional partially linear varying coefficient models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(3), pages 657-677, June.
    17. Zhang, Ting & Wang, Lei, 2020. "Smoothed empirical likelihood inference and variable selection for quantile regression with nonignorable missing response," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2020. "Learning from Forecast Errors: A New Approach to Forecast Combination," Working Papers 202024, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    19. Roberta De Vito & Ruggero Bellio & Lorenzo Trippa & Giovanni Parmigiani, 2019. "Multi‐study factor analysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 337-346, March.
    20. Chenchen Ma & Jing Ouyang & Gongjun Xu, 2023. "Learning Latent and Hierarchical Structures in Cognitive Diagnosis Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 175-207, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:183:y:2020:i:4:p:1777-1792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.