Estimating Parliamentary composition through electoral polls
AbstractAll electoral systems have an "electoral formula" that converts proportions of votes into Parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focus on estimating proportions of votes and then apply the electoral formula to give a forecast of Parliamentary composition. We describe the problems that arise from this approach: there will typically be a bias in the forecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods for evaluating and reducing it. We propose a bootstrap algorithm for computing confidence intervals for the allocation of seats. We show, by Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish elections in previous years. We also propose graphical methods for visualizing how electoral formulae and Parliamentary forecasts work (or fail). Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A.
Volume (Year): 168 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Frederic Udina & Pedro Delicado, 2001. "Estimating parliamentary composition through electoral polls," Economics Working Papers 562, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
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