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Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings

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  • THOMAS HEMMER
  • EVA LABRO

Abstract

We explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully, with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings. We generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings‐returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated. This parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results: reported losses are less persistent than reported gains, decision making diminishes the S‐shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by Basu [1997]. Furthermore, the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single‐peaked. Instead, it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by Burgstahler and Dichev [1997]. However, within our model, none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise, bias, or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior. They are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based.

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  • Thomas Hemmer & Eva Labro, 2019. "Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 5-51, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:57:y:2019:i:1:p:5-51
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12249
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    3. Kelly Huang & Brent Lao & Gregory McPhee, 2020. "Internal information quality and patent‐related innovation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3-4), pages 489-518, March.
    4. Jacobo Gomez-Conde & Ernesto Lopez-Valeiras & Fabricia Silva Rosa & Rogério João Lunkes, 2023. "The effect of management control systems in managing the unknown: Does the market appreciate the breadth of vision?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(8), pages 2769-2795, November.
    5. Naser Makarem & Frank Hong Liu & Lei Chen, 2023. "Evidence that financing decisions contribute to the zero-earnings discontinuity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 231-257, January.
    6. Henry Jarva & Matthijs Lof, 2024. "Identifying accounting conservatism in the presence of skewness," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-577, February.
    7. Jung Ho Choi, 2021. "Accrual Accounting and Resource Allocation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1179-1219, September.
    8. Byzalov, Dmitri & Basu, Sudipta, 2019. "Modeling the determinants of meet-or-just-beat behavior in distribution discontinuity tests," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    9. Masschelein, Stijn & Moers, Frank, 2020. "Testing for complementarities between accounting practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Beyer, Anne & Smith, Kevin C., 2021. "Learning about risk-factor exposures from earnings: Implications for asset pricing and manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).

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