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The Market's Differential Reactions to Forward‐Looking and Backward‐Looking Dividend Changes

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  • Bong‐Soo Lee
  • Nairong Allen Yan

Abstract

Empirical evidence on the signaling hypothesis of dividends is weak and mixed. Recent studies find that dividend changes reflect mostly current and past earnings but not future earnings. We provide a model in which not all dividend changes contain new information about future earnings. Some dividend decisions are backward looking (noninformation or nonsignaling events). Other dividend decisions are forward looking (information or signaling events). The model helps identify the two types of dividend changes and predicts that the market will respond strongly only to forward‐looking dividend changes. We provide evidence consistent with the implications of the model.

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  • Bong‐Soo Lee & Nairong Allen Yan, 2003. "The Market's Differential Reactions to Forward‐Looking and Backward‐Looking Dividend Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 449-468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:26:y:2003:i:4:p:449-468
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-6803.00068
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang Shao & Chuck C.Y. Kwok & Omrane Guedhami, 2013. "Dividend Policy: Balancing Shareholders' And Creditors' Interests," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-66, January.
    2. Andreas Charitou & Neophytos Lambertides & Giorgos Theodoulou, 2010. "The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 153-187, June.
    3. Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2016. "Dividend initiations, increases and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-60.
    4. Bozos, Konstantinos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Ramgandhi, Ghanamaruthy, 2011. "Dividend signaling under economic adversity: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 364-374.
    5. Dasilas, Apostolos & Leventis, Stergios, 2011. "Stock market reaction to dividend announcements: Evidence from the Greek stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 302-311, April.
    6. Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2019. "Valuation effects of tax-free versus taxed cash distributions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 307-321.
    7. Chin-Sheng Huang & Chun-Fan You & Hsiao-Fen Hsiao, 2017. "Dividends and Subsequent Profitability: An Examination of a Dual Dividend Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-35, March.

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