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On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?

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  • Ali F. Darrat
  • Shafiqur Rahman
  • Maosen Zhong
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    Abstract

    We examine the role of index futures trading in spot market volatility. We use the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) approach to measure volatility, analyze causality and feedback relations between volatilities in the spot and futures markets, and test various hypotheses in the context of a multivariate model that incorporates other macrostate variables. Our empirical results suggest index futures trading may not be blamed for the observed volatility in the spot market. Rather, we find stronger and more consistent support for the alternative posture that volatility in the futures market is an outgrowth of a turbulent cash market. We use the regret (cognitive dissonance) theory to explain our results. The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Financial Research.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 431-444

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:3:p:431-444

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    Cited by:
    1. Evangelos Drimbetas & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Nicos Porfiris, 2007. "The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: evidence from the Greek stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 139-148.
    2. Bhargava, Vivek & Malhotra, D.K., 2007. "The relationship between futures trading activity and exchange rate volatility, revisited," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 95-111, April.
    3. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    4. Hung, Mao-Wei & So, Leh-Chyan, 2009. "New insights into India’s single stock futures markets," MPRA Paper 52491, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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