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A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets

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  • SAMUEL M. HARTZMARK
  • KELLY SHUE

Abstract

A contrast effect occurs when the value of a previously observed signal inversely biases perception of the next signal. We present the first evidence that contrast effects can distort prices in sophisticated and liquid markets. Investors mistakenly perceive earnings news today as more impressive if yesterday's earnings surprise was bad and less impressive if yesterday's surprise was good. A unique advantage of our financial setting is that we can identify contrast effects as an error in perceptions rather than expectations. Finally, we show that our results cannot be explained by an alternative explanation involving information transmission from previous earnings announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2018. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1567-1613, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:73:y:2018:i:4:p:1567-1613
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12685
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    Cited by:

    1. Noh, Suzie & So, Eric C. & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2021. "Calendar rotations: A new approach for studying the impact of timing using earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 865-893.
    2. Hirshleifer, David & Sheng, Jinfei, 2022. "Macro news and micro news: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1006-1024.
    3. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2020. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 045, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Wu, Chunying & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya & Zhang, Jin, 2022. "Does social media distort price discovery? Evidence from rumor clarifications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "The ordering of historical returns and the cross-section of subsequent returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Guo, Julie & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2021. "Waterfall illusion in risky choice – exposure to outcome-irrelevant gambles affects subsequent valuation of risky gambles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Chen, Bei & Gan, Quan & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2023. "Anticipating jumps: Decomposition of straddle price," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2024. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," CESifo Working Paper Series 10957, CESifo.
    10. Victor Ginsburgh & Juan D. Moreno-Ternero, 2023. "The Eurovision Song Contest: voting rules, biases and rationality," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 47(2), pages 247-277, June.
    11. Elhorst, Paul & Faems, Dries, 2021. "Evaluating proposals in innovation contests: Exploring negative scoring spillovers in the absence of a strict evaluation sequence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
    12. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Pradier, Lionnel & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2023. "Biased risk perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. He, Wen & Li, Yan, 2020. "Comparing with the average: Reference points and market reactions to above-average earnings surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Cheema, Arbab K. & Eshraghi, Arman & Wang, Qingwei, 2023. "Macroeconomic news and price synchronicity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 390-412.
    15. Cornaggia, Kimberly & Hund, John & Nguyen, Giang, 2022. "Investor attention and municipal bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Akey, Pat & Grégoire, Vincent & Martineau, Charles, 2022. "Price revelation from insider trading: Evidence from hacked earnings news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1162-1184.
    17. Jia, Weishi & Redigolo, Giulia & Shu, Susan & Zhao, Jingran, 2020. "Can social media distort price discovery? Evidence from merger rumors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1).
    18. Akey, Pat & Grégoire, Vincent & Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Price Revelation from Insider Trading: Evidence from Hacked Earnings News," SocArXiv qe6tu, Center for Open Science.
    19. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    20. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2024. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 497, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    21. Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon, 2020. "Reconsidering Returns," NBER Working Papers 27380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Xudong Fu & Janet Hamilton & Qin Lian & Tian Tang & Qiming Wang, 2021. "New institutional investors in the IPO secondary market: Sentiment or fundamentals?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 299-341, June.
    23. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.

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