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Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates:

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  • Huang, Roger D

Abstract

The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange-rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation-rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange-rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premium in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange-rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets. Copyright 1987 by American Finance Association.

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  • Huang, Roger D, 1987. "Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates:," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 69-79, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:42:y:1987:i:1:p:69-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanas, Angelos & Genius, Margarita, 2005. "Regime (non)stationarity in the US/UK real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 407-413, June.
    2. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
    3. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1999. "Cointegration and joint efficiency of international commodity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 213-231.
    4. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1994. "A new approach to testing ex ante purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(9), pages 148-151.
    5. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1995. "Predictable components in exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Hiemstra, Stephen W. & Shane, Mathew, 1988. "Monetary Factors Influencing GATT Negotiations on Agriculture," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 147990, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
    8. Gouriéroux, Christian & Peaucelle, Irina, 1992. "Séries codépendantes : application à l’hypothèse de parité du pouvoir d’achat," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 283-304, mars et j.
    9. A. Rashad Abdel†Khalik, 1990. "Specification problems with information content of earnings: revisions and rationality of expectations and self†selection bias," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 142-172, September.

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