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Exploring the Global Journey of Nickel with Markov Chain Models

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  • Matthew J. Eckelman
  • Barbara K. Reck
  • T. E. Graedel

Abstract

Markov chain (MC) modeling is a versatile tool in policy analysis and has been applied in several forms to analyze resource flows. This article builds on previous discussions of the relationship among absorbing Markov chains (AMCs), material flow analysis (MFA), and input‐output (IO) analysis, and presents a full‐scale application of MC modeling for a particular globally relevant, nonrenewable resource, namely nickel. The MC model presented here is built on comprehensive, recently compiled nickel flow data for 52 geographic regions. Considering all possible cycles of recycling and reuse, nickel extracted in 2005 is estimated to have a technological lifetime of 73 ± 7 years. During its global journey, nickel enters use, for some application somewhere in the world, an average of three times, the largest share of which occurs in China. Nickel entering fabrication in 2005 is estimated to enter use approximately four times. Over time, nickel is lost to the environment and as a tramp element in carbon steel; the final distribution of nickel among these absorbing states is 78% and 22%, respectively. Of all the nickel in ore extracted in 2005, fully 28% will eventually end up in the tailings, slag, and landfills of China. MC results are also combined with geographically specific life cycle inventory data to determine the overall energy invested in nickel during its many cycles of use. MCs provide a powerful tool for tracking resources through the network of global production, use, and waste management, and opportunities for further integration with other modeling efforts are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew J. Eckelman & Barbara K. Reck & T. E. Graedel, 2012. "Exploring the Global Journey of Nickel with Markov Chain Models," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(3), pages 334-342, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:334-342
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2011.00425.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Figge, Frank & Thorpe, Andrea Stevenson & Good, Jason, 2021. "Us before me: A group level approach to the circular economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    2. Chhimwal, Madhukar & Agrawal, Saurabh & Kumar, Girish, 2023. "Markovian approach to evaluate circularity in supply chain of non ferrous metal industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Figge, Frank & Thorpe, Andrea Stevenson & Givry, Philippe & Canning, Louise & Franklin-Johnson, Elizabeth, 2018. "Longevity and Circularity as Indicators of Eco-Efficient Resource Use in the Circular Economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 297-306.
    4. Jean-Yves Courtonne & Pierre-Yves Longaretti & Julien Alapetite & Denis Dupré, 2015. "Environmental pressures embodied in the French cereals supply chain," Working Papers hal-01150067, HAL.
    5. Schmidt, Tobias & Buchert, Matthias & Schebek, Liselotte, 2016. "Investigation of the primary production routes of nickel and cobalt products used for Li-ion batteries," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 107-122.
    6. Henning Wigger & Till Zimmermann & Christian Pade, 2015. "Broadening our view on nanomaterials: highlighting potentials to contribute to a sustainable materials management in preliminary assessments," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 110-128, March.
    7. Pothen, Frank & Hundt, Carolin, 2024. "European post-consumer steel scrap in 2050: A review of estimates and modeling assumptions," Jena Contributions to Economic Research Jahrgang 2024/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    8. Thomas Wiedmann & Heinz Schandl & Daniel Moran, 2015. "The footprint of using metals: new metrics of consumption and productivity," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(3), pages 369-388, July.
    9. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    10. Christoph Helbig & Jonas Huether & Charlotte Joachimsthaler & Christian Lehmann & Simone Raatz & Andrea Thorenz & Martin Faulstich & Axel Tuma, 2022. "A terminology for downcycling," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1164-1174, August.
    11. Pauliuk, Stefan & Kondo, Yasushi & Nakamura, Shinichiro & Nakajima, Kenichi, 2017. "Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout multiple product life cycles—Insights from the global multiregional MaTrace model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 84-93.
    12. Figge, Frank & Thorpe, Andrea Stevenson & Manzhynski, Siarhei, 2021. "Between you and I: A portfolio theory of the circular economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    13. Glenn A. Aguilar-Hernandez & Carlos Pablo Sigüenza-Sanchez & Franco Donati & João F. D. Rodrigues & Arnold Tukker, 2018. "Assessing circularity interventions: a review of EEIOA-based studies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Dong, Xiaojuan & An, Feng & Dong, Zhiliang & Wang, Ze & Jiang, Meihui & Yang, Ping & An, Haigang, 2021. "Optimization of the international nickel ore trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Frank Figge & Andrea Stevenson Thorpe & Siarhei Manzhynski & Melissa Gutberlet, 2022. "The us in reUSe. Theorizing the how and why of the circular economy," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 2741-2753, September.
    16. Frank Figge & Andrea Stevenson Thorpe & Siarhei Manzhynski, 2022. "Value creation and the circular economy: A tale of three externalities," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1690-1700, October.

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