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Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A Computable General Equilibrium‐Microsimulation Analysis

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  • NICOLAS HERAULT

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of trade liberalisation on poverty and income inequality in South Africa. The main issue of interest is the effect of international trade on households (especially their income). The approach presented in this paper relies on combining a macro‐orientated computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. The main concern regarding poor households is whether the decrease in nominal earnings for formal low‐skilled and skilled workers is offset by the upward trend in formal employment levels. The analysis indicates that such a trade‐off occurs, implying a decrease in poverty due to trade liberalisation.

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  • Nicolas Herault, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A Computable General Equilibrium‐Microsimulation Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(262), pages 317-328, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:83:y:2007:i:262:p:317-328
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2007.00417.x
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    1. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-8.
    2. Thurlow, James, 2006. "Has trade liberalization in South Africa affected men and women differently?," DSGD discussion papers 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
    4. McDonald, Scott & Punt, Cecilia, 2005. "General equilibrium modelling in South Africa: What the future holds," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(1), pages 1-39, March.
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    1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The benefits and problems of linking micro and macromodels - Evidence from a flat tax analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 12, pages 301-329, November.
    3. Herault, Nicolas & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Agricultural Distortions, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52792, World Bank.
    4. Maheshwar Rao & Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama, 2013. "‘A Systems Approach to Analyse the Impacts of Water Policy Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin: a conceptual and an analytical framework’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 13/22, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    5. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Yolande van Heerden & Niek Schoeman, 2010. "An Empirical Dissemination Of The Personal Income Tax Regime In South Africa Using A Microsimulation Tax Model," Working Papers 201025, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Binjian, Binjian & Sakamoto, Hiroshi, 2013. "Market Reform and Income Distribution in China : A CGE–Microsimulation Approach," AGI Working Paper Series 2013-13, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    8. Narayanan, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 755-766, May.
    9. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    10. Nicolas Hérault, 2010. "Sequential linking of Computable General Equilibrium and microsimulation models: a comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-42.
    11. Narayanan, Badri & Thomas Hertel & Mark Horridge, 2010. "Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE," GTAP Technical Papers 3192, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    12. Miriam Frey, 2016. "Income Inequality Effects of Ukraine’s Trade Liberalization with the EU. Are there 'two Ukraines'?," EcoMod2016 9664, EcoMod.
    13. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.
    14. George Verikios & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2010. "Structural Change in the Australian Electricity Industry During the 1990s and the Effect on Household Income Distribution," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-207, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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