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The Causality Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Revisited

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  • BALA RAMASAMY
  • MATTHEW C.H. YEUNG

Abstract

There has been a renewed interest in the determination of causality between stock markets and exchange rates. In nearly all these studies Granger causality tests has been extensively used. In this paper, we employ the standard Granger causality methodology to a research setting similar to that of Granger et al. (2000). We consider the causality between the two markets in nine east Asian economies. We find that the direction of causality tends to demonstrate a hit‐and‐run behaviour and switches according to the length of period chosen. This implies that great caution should be taken when interpreting Granger causality results.

Suggested Citation

  • Bala Ramasamy & Matthew C.H. Yeung, 2005. "The Causality Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Revisited," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 162-169, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:162-169
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2005.00257.x
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    1. Bojan Tomic, 2015. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On The Movement Of Crobex," FIP - Journal of Finance and Law, Effectus - University College for Law and Finance, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
    2. Nicolaas Groenewold & James E.H. Paterson, 2013. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Australia: Are Commodity Prices the Missing Link?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3-4), pages 159-170, December.
    3. Kabir, Mustafa & Masih, Mansur, 2019. "Portfolio diversification between exchange rates and islamic stocks: evidence from the USA, Euro area, Japan and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 100574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vanderlei Kleinschmidt & Roberto Meurer, 2008. "Interdependence in conditional variances between Latin American stock markets," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211543080, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Mira Nurmakhanova, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Interactions in Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 19-31.
    6. Haakon Kavli & Kevin Kotzé, 2014. "Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 209-238, June.
    7. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
    8. Daniel Stavarek, 2004. "Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States," Finance 0406006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Adewumi Otonne & Terzungwe Usar & Adebayo Adereni, 2018. "Real Exchange Returns and Real Stock Price Returns in Nigeria: An Econometrics Analysis of the Direction of Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(5), pages 131-144, 05-2018.
    10. Giulia Piccillo, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Asset Prices: Heterogeneous Agents at Work," CESifo Working Paper Series 4257, CESifo.
    11. Karunanayake, Indika, 2014. "Exchange Rate Influences On Stock Market Returns And Volatility Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From The Australian Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    12. Kanda, Patrick & Burke, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying causality between equity and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over two centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1060-1080.
    13. Ayub, Aishaton & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Islamic Indices in Malaysia FTSE Market: A Wavelet Based Approach," MPRA Paper 59618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    15. Hooi Hooi Lean & Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2011. "Exchange Rate And Stock Price Interaction In Major Asian Markets: Evidence For Individual Countries And Panels Allowing For Structural Breaks," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(02), pages 255-277.
    16. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    17. Tomić, Bojan & Sesar, Andrijana, 2015. "Interdependence of Industrial Production Index and capital market in Croatia: VAR model," MPRA Paper 66816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    19. Daniel Stavárek, 2005. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States: Evidence on their Mutual Interactions (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(3-4), pages 141-161, March.
    20. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. David McMillan & Isabel Ruiz & Alan Speight, 2010. "Correlations and spillovers among three euro rates: evidence using realised variance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 753-767.
    22. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Stock Market‐Induced Currency Crises—A New Type of Twins," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 223-236, May.
    24. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.

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