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Methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture

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  • Graeme J. Doole
  • Dan K. Marsh

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ajar12023-abs-0001"> The land-use optimisation framework, NZFARM , has been promoted as a tool that can be used to assess the economic and environmental impacts of policy on regional land use. This paper outlines how methodological limitations presently restrict its capacity to provide meaningful insight into the relative value of alternative land-use configurations. The model is calibrated using positive mathematical programming, which has been shown in the literature to result in models that yield arbitrary output outside of the calibrated baseline. There is a high likelihood that this is the case, as no validation appears to have been carried out. Significant model development will be required before NZFARM outputs can be used with any confidence to inform future policy development. We conclude with suggestions on how NZFARM and models of its kind can be further developed to improve their capacity for meaningful simulation.

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  • Graeme J. Doole & Dan K. Marsh, 2014. "Methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 78-89, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:58:y:2014:i:1:p:78-89
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ajar.2014.58.issue-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fraser J. Morgan & Philip Brown & Adam J. Daigneault, 2015. "Simulation vs. Definition: Differing Approaches to Setting Probabilities for Agent Behaviour," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Doole, Graeme J. & Marsh, Dan K., 2014. "Use of positive mathematical programming invalidates the application of the NZFARM model: Response to Daigneault et al. (2014)," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(2), April.
    3. Daigneault, Adam & Greenhalgh, Suzie & Samarasinghe, Oshadhi, 2014. "A response to Doole and Marsh (2013) article: methodological limitations in the evaluation of policies to reduce nitrate leaching from New Zealand agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(2), April.
    4. Gawith, David & Hodge, Ian & Morgan, Fraser & Daigneault, Adam, 2020. "Climate change costs more than we think because people adapt less than we assume," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Fraser J Morgan & Adam J Daigneault, 2015. "Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Spicer, E. Anne & Swaffield, Simon & Moore, Kevin, 2021. "Agricultural land use management responses to a cap and trade regime for water quality in Lake Taupo catchment, New Zealand," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Claire Settre & Jeff Connor & Sarah Ann Wheeler, 2017. "Reviewing the Treatment of Uncertainty in Hydro-economic Modeling of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-35, July.
    8. Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Mohring, Anke & Zimmerman, Albert & Mann, Stefan, 2015. "How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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