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Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Data from Social Media

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  • Elena Shulyak

    (HSE University)

Abstract

In this paper, I build a series of economic sentiment indices for Russia based on news posts and comments on them from the Russian social network VKontakte. Text from the social network is processed, and the Gibbs Sampling algorithm for the Dirichlet Multinomial Mixture (GSDMM) model is used to highlight news posts on economic topics. To check whether the obtained indices really describe consumer and business sentiment, I compare them with existing indices: the Levada Center’s consumer sentiment index and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing and service sectors in Russia. I use the indices constructed to predict macroeconomic indicators for Russia using machine learning methods (Random Forest, Extremely Randomised Trees, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost). I compare the mean square errors (MSE) of the machine learning models with the MSEs of a first-order autoregressive model. In almost all cases, the errors of the machine learning models are smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Shulyak, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Data from Social Media," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(4), pages 86-112, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:81:y:2022:i:4:p:86-112
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andres Algaba & David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Samuel Borms & Kris Boudt, 2020. "Econometrics Meets Sentiment: An Overview Of Methodology And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 512-547, July.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2019. "Questioning the news about economic growth: Sparse forecasting using thousands of news-based sentiment values," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1370-1386.
    4. Jason Bram & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 59-78.
    5. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif A., 2019. "The value of news for economic developments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 203-218.
    6. Gabe J. Bondt & Stefano Schiaffi, 2015. "Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area and the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1027-1040, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    machine learning; text analysis; gradient boosting; data analysis; text clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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