IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bkr/journl/v79y2020i4p3-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Svetlana Popova

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Andrey Sinyakov

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Natalia Turdyeva

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Dmitry Chernyadyev

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksey Ponomarenko & Svetlana Popova & Andrey Sinyakov & Natalia Turdyeva & Dmitry Chernyadyev, 2020. "Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 3-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:4:p:3-17
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.202004.03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/9bb/Consequences-Pandemic-Russian-Economy.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31477/rjmf.202004.03?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
    4. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
    5. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2022. "Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 905-929, October.
    7. Carvalho, V & Garcia, Juan R. & Hansen, S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & More, J. V. R., 2020. "Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2030, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    9. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    10. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19," Papers 2003.14002, arXiv.org.
    11. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "Using Payment System Data to Forecast Economic Activity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 55-80, October.
    12. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Turdyeva & Anna Tsvetkova & Levon Movsesyan & Alexey Porshakov & Dmitriy Chernyadyev, 2021. "Data of Sectoral Financial Flows as a High-Frequency Indicator of Economic Activity," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 28-49, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    3. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    5. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara & John Galbraith, 2020. "Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data," Cahiers de recherche 14-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    7. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    10. Masciandaro, Donato & Goodhart, Charles & Ugolini, Stefano, 2021. "Pandemic recession and helicopter money: Venice, 1629–1631," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 300-318, December.
    11. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    12. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2020. "In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-18, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2021.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    14. Balleer, Almut & Link, Sebastian & Menkhoff, Manuel & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Martin Forster & Emanuela Randon, 2020. "Epidemic policy under uncertainty and information," Discussion Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Changes in Consumption in the Early COVID-19 Era: Zip-Code Level Evidence from the U.S," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-10, October.
    17. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Qianxue Zhang, 2022. "The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1087-1109, September.
    19. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    20. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; input-output model; payment system; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:4:p:3-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Kuvshinova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.