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Analysis of Export Determinants in Sudan by Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)

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  • Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman

Abstract

Export increases the total demand in society, which in turn increases the level of income and more through the multiplier. This study investigates from an empirical point of view the determinants affecting Sudan’s exports during the period (1977- 2018). The purpose was to identify the interrelation between the variables and the findings can be used for the development of the economy. The data obtained from the annual time series of the World Bank; the data was input into the Auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to find the results. The model used five explanatory variables (GDP, Growth Rate, Investment, Saving, Exchange Rate). The results showed that all explanatory variables had a positive effect on the exports. However, exchange rate was the only variable that showed negative effect on Sudan’s exports that made up Sudan’s low-income agriculture-based economy. This means that export of Sudan has affected by gross domestic product as well as investment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman, 2021. "Analysis of Export Determinants in Sudan by Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjz:ajisjr:2089
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2021-0101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains," Working Papers 2018-07, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.
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