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Confidence Sets for Cointegrating Coefficients Based on Stationarity Tests

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Author Info
Wright, Jonathan H

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Abstract

Standard methods for inference in cointegrating systems require all the variables to have exact unit roots and are not at all robust even to slight violations of this condition. In this article, I consider an alternative approach to inference in a cointegrating system. This involves testing the hypothesis that a cointegrating vector takes on a specified value by testing for the stationarity of the associated residual. Confidence sets for the cointegrating vector can be constructed by exploiting the equivalence between tests and confidence sets. This method has the advantage that it remains valid even if the regressors have roots that are not exactly equal to unity.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 211-22
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:2:p:211-22

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  1. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan H. Wright, 1999. "A simple approach to robust inference in a cointegrating system," International Finance Discussion Papers 654, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Ulrich Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2009. "Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing," NBER Working Papers 15292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Working Papers 1122, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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