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Labour Market Effects Of Social Security Contribution Reform In Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Jelena Žarković-Rakić
  • Saša Ranđelović
  • Marko Vladisavljević

Abstract

In Serbia the inactivity rate of the working-age population is close to 40%, among the highest in Europe. The country also faces a high informal employment rate of 24%. Previous research has argued that high levels of informality and inactivity are mostly due to a high effective tax wedge at low wage levels caused by a minimum base for calculation of social security contributions (SSC), sudden withdrawal of means-tested benefits once formal income is earned, and low progressivity of income tax. This paper evaluates the impact of the minimum SSC base reform scenarios on labour supply and employment formalization using tax and benefit micro-simulation models together with the structural discrete choice labour supply model based on the Survey on Income and Living Conditions Data. Although we do not find positive employment effects of the reform, it would be premature to deduce that abolishment of the minimum SSC base is not needed. At this stage in our research, until alternative labour-supply modelling is applied, with both sector and hours of work choice alternatives, it is only safe to conclude that the proposed reform will not significantly contribute to the transformation of informal full-time to formal full-time jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Žarković-Rakić & Saša Ranđelović & Marko Vladisavljević, 2016. "Labour Market Effects Of Social Security Contribution Reform In Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(208), pages 73-92, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:61:y:2016:i:208:p:73-92
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 525, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Jaime Saavedra & Alberto Chong, 1999. "Structural reform, institutions and earnings: Evidence from the formal and informal sectors in urban Peru," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 95-116.
    3. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2011. "Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US," Working Papers 201114, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Gorana Krstić & Peter Sanfey, 2011. "Earnings inequality and the informal economy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 179-199, January.
    5. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas-James Clavet & Luca Tiberti & Marko Vladisavljevic & Jelena Zarkovic Rakic & Aleksandra Anic & Gorana Krstic & Sasa Randelovic, 2017. "Reduction of child poverty in Serbia: Improved cash-transfers or higher work incentives for parents?," Working Papers PMMA 2017-04, PEP-PMMA.
    2. Ranđelović Saša & Žarković Rakić Jelena & Vladisavljević Marko & Vujić Sunčica, 2019. "Labour Supply and Inequality Effects of In-Work Benefits: Evidence from Serbia," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(3), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Andy McKay & Jukka Pirttilä & Caroline Schimanski, 2019. "The tax elasticity of formal work in African countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-69, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social security contributions; labour market; micro-simulation; labour supply; Serbia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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