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Real-time regional GDP forecasting: statistical aspects and a forecasting model

Author

Listed:
  • Concha Artola
  • María Gil
  • Danilo Leiva
  • Javier J. Pérez
  • Alberto Urtasun

Abstract

The monitoring of the regional economic situation takes on particular importance in highly decentralised countries, such as Spain. Against this background, this article summarises the key aspects of the BayFaR model (Bayesian Factor model for Regions), a new tool used by the Banco de España for the short-term forecasting of the GDP of the Spanish economy and of its biggest regions. The tool allows monthly indicators of activity to be combined with quarterly GDP, the benchmark variable for conjunctural analysis. In Spain’s case, however, it is necessary to use alternative measures of this variable. This is because the official statistics do not provide a homogeneous measure for all the regions, nor one that is consistent with INE’s national quarterly GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Concha Artola & María Gil & Danilo Leiva & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Real-time regional GDP forecasting: statistical aspects and a forecasting model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2019:i:6:d:aa:n:17
    Note: Analytical Articles
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional economic activity; nowcasting; dynamic factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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