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V. Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State

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  • Lessner, L.

Abstract

The results of the Newborn HIV Seroprevalence Study in New York State for 1988 were used to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of childbearing age in 1988. The estimate was accomplished for each of 80 age, racial/ethnic, and geographic strata by dividing the number of seropositive newborns by the 1988 estimated fertility rate. Summing across strata yielded a total of 23,430 infected women age 15 to 44 years in 1988. From this estimate a tree model was used to estimate the number of women infected during 1981-1988. Back calculation was used to distribute these infections over time, and the selected incubation distribution was used to estimate future AIDS cases for this population: 8,295 cases by 1993.

Suggested Citation

  • Lessner, L., 1991. "V. Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 81(SUPPL.), pages 30-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1991:81:suppl.:30-34_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Lessner, Lawrence, 2008. "The estimation of HIV prevalence for women of child bearing age in New York City," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 271-285, December.
    2. Lessner, Lawrence, 2008. "HIV prevalence for New York State using Newborn Seroprevalence and AIDS Surveillance Data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 286-299, December.

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