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A Simple Macro-Fiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia

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  • Daniel Baksa
  • Ales Bulir
  • Dyna Heng

Abstract

Macroeconomic management in many developing countries is often heavily dependent on fiscal policies. This paper develops a semi-structural macro-fiscal model for simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies in Cambodia. The model is calibrated to capture key characteristics of Cambodia’s economy and serves as a tool for scenario analysis. We demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The model’s results conform with past empirical analyses of the Cambodian economy and generate intuitive and easy-to-understand policy scenarios. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model help to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice. In particular, the results could serve as an input for the country’s medium-term fiscal framework and debt sustainability analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Baksa & Ales Bulir & Dyna Heng, 2022. "A Simple Macro-Fiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 9(1), pages 21-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoj:ajeaer:v:9:y:2022:i:1:p:21-37:id:3733
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    Cited by:

    1. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Tosapol Apaitan & Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul & Nuwat Nookhwun, 2021. "Revisiting Thailand's Monetary Policy Model for an Integrated Policy Analysis," PIER Discussion Papers 164, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

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