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Systemic Risk 10 Years Later

Author

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  • Robert Engle

    (The Volatility Institute, Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA)

Abstract

Ten years ago, the financial crisis spurred research focused on systemic risk. This article examines the history and application of the SRISK measure, which was developed at that time and is now widely used in monitoring systemic risk around the globe. The concept is explained and a variety of ways to measure SRISK are developed. In this article, new results are presented on the uncertainty associated with the SRISK measure and on how it compares with other related measures from both academics and regulators. By focusing on the mechanism by which undercapitalization of the financial sector initiates a financial crisis, new research examines how the probability of a financial crisis is affected by the level of SRISK and, consequently, how much SRISK a country can stand without having a high probability of crisis. The model used to evaluate this probability recognizes the externalities between financial institutions that make an undercapitalized firm or country more fragile if other firms and countries are also undercapitalized.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Engle, 2018. "Systemic Risk 10 Years Later," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 125-152, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:10:y:2018:p:125-152
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023056
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2022. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the Dutch Financial Sector," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-034/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the European Banking Sector," Working Papers 768, DNB.
    3. Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing signed and unsigned spillovers," Working Papers 2020-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    4. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2022. "Banking networks, systemic risk, and the credit cycle in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Dimitrov, Daniel, 2023. "Macroprudential Regulation: A Risk Management Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 17846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina & Schenck, Natalya A., 2022. "The long-term impact of bank mergers on stock performance and default risk: The aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis✰," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Hossain, Md. Jamal & Akter, Sadia & Ismail, Mohd Tahir, 2021. "Performance Analysis of GARCH Family Models in Three Time-frames," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 15-28.
    8. Glück, Thorsten & Adams, Zeno, 2023. "Systemic Risk of Commodity Traders," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277600, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2020. "Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Raisul Islam & Vladimir Volkov, 2022. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing spillover indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1403-1455, September.
    11. Anna Maria Fiori & Francesco Porro, 2023. "A compositional analysis of systemic risk in European financial institutions," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 325-354, September.
    12. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & de Bruin, Anne, 2020. "Energy commodity uncertainties and the systematic risk of US industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Halili, Alba & Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Contessi, Silvio, 2021. "Credit Derivatives and Bank Systemic Risk: Risk Enhancing or Reducing?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    14. Goldman, Elena, 2023. "Uncertainty in systemic risks rankings: Bayesian and frequentist analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.
    16. Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Alejandra Quintos, 2021. "Computing the Probability of a Financial Market Failure: A New Measure of Systemic Risk," Papers 2110.10936, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    17. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Garibal, Jean-Charles & Maillet, Bertrand, 2022. "Systemic risk and severe economic downturns: A targeted and sparse analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Jin Li, 2023. "Analysis of Evolving Hazard Overflows and Construction of an Alert System in the Chinese Finance Industry Using Statistical Learning Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; SRISK; financial crisis; GARCH; dynamic conditional beta; DCC; stress tests; financial regulation; CoVaR; SES; bootstrap; Tobit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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