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A Restrição Externa como Fator Limitante do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico

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Author Info

  • Veridiana Ramos Carvalho

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araujo dos Santos

    (Universidade de São Paulo e Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional)

Abstract

Este artigo emprega a abordagem do crescimento econômico sob restrição externa, tal como desenvolvida a partir de Thirlwall (1979), para estimar empiricamente em que medida, se alguma, o crescimento brasileiro de longo prazo tem sido condicionado por essa restrição. Após avaliar a especificação dessa restrição que melhor se ajusta ao caso brasileiro, é constatado, a partir de evidências empíricas robustas, que o crescimento brasileiro entre 1948 e 2004 foi restringido pelo equilíbrio nas contas externas. Entretanto, o poder explicativo da especificação que incorpora o fluxo de capitais e o endividamento externo não difere muito do correspondente à Lei de Thirlwall original.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

Volume (Year): 9 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 285-307

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Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:9:y:2008:i:2:285-307

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Related research

Keywords: Crescimento Brasileiro; Restrição Externa; Lei de Thirlwall; Cointegração;

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Cited by:
  1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.

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