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An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis, Karen E.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.

Abstract

The performance of the USDA domestic sugar production and consumption forecasts for marketing years 1993/1994 through 2009/201 1 was evaluated. Using USDA sugar forecast information, U.S. sugar policy attempts to operate at no cost to the government by maintaining sugar prices above the government loan-rate. Results suggest no evidence that U.S. sugar policy is negatively impacted by the USDA sugar forecasts. New policies formed under the 2008 Farm Bill are not impaired by USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Overall, the results suggest that the USDA has done a respectable job of forecasting sugar production and consumption over the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Karen E. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2012. "An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 30(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:260199
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260199
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmitz, Troy G. & Lewis, Karen E., 2015. "Impact of NAFTA on U.S. and Mexican Sugar Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-18, September.
    2. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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