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Grain Marketing Strategies Within and Across Lifetimes

Author

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  • Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa
  • Tomek, William G.

Abstract

To reconcile the discrepancy between the efficient market hypothesis and grain marketing recommendations by advisory services and extension programs, simulated prices from an efficient market are used to compare performance of marketing practices over the long run and in individual 40-year periods. We find that an efficient market can generate diverse price behavior within finite samples, allowing for strategies that are inferior on average to perform relatively better, as frequently as half of the time in an average 40-year lifetime. Lifetime returns of strategies show considerable overlap, suggesting extremely low confidence in recommendations made based on short samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2007. "Grain Marketing Strategies Within and Across Lifetimes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8598
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8598
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J. & Riley, John Michael, 2013. "Challenging Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," 2013 AAEA: Crop Insurance and the Farm Bill Symposium 156958, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2014. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(2), pages 557-577.
    3. Miao Li & Tao Xiong & Ziran Li, 2023. "A tale of two contracts: Examining the behavior of bid–ask spreads of corn futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 792-806, June.
    4. Ross D. Heiman & Hikaru Hanawa Peterson, 2008. "Determinants of Premiums Received by Organic Field Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 729-749.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Marketing;

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