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Ertrags- und Preisinstabilität auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland und der EU

Author

Listed:
  • Artavia, M.
  • Deppermann, A.
  • Filler, G.
  • Grethe, H.
  • Häger, A.
  • Kirschke, D.
  • Odening, M.

Abstract

Die Preisvolatilität hat in Deutschland im Zeitraum 1993-2008 für wichtige Agrarprodukte (Weizen, Gerste und Milch) vor allem aufgrund der Deregulierung der EU-Märkte zugenommen. Für andere Produkte hat sich die Preisvolatilität in diesem Zeitraum wenig geändert, was vor allem daran liegt, dass das Ausmaß der Marktregulierung über diesen Zeitraum stabil war. Im Rahmen von Simulationen mit dem Agrarsektormodell ESIM wurde gezeigt, dass es aufgrund der starken Weltmarktintegration bei Weizen, Gerste und Raps keinen erlösstabilisierenden Zusammenhang zwischen den Ertrags- und den Preisschwankungen in Deutschland gibt, da das auch in Deutschland maßgebliche Weltmarktpreisniveau nicht wesentlich durch das Ertragsniveau in Deutschland determiniert wird. Ein potenzieller Anstieg der globalen Ertragsvariabilität, der sich langfristig in Folge des globalen Klimawandels einstellen könnte, würde zu einem Anstieg der Preisvolatilität führen. Forderungen nach einer staatlichen Subventionierung von Ernteversicherungen aufgrund des hohen systemischen Risikos und daraus resultierenden Marktversagens haben in den letzten Jahren zugenommen. Bisher fehlt allerdings der empirische Nachweis dafür, dass das systemische Risiko in seiner Höhe nicht durch marktwirtschaftliche Instrumente und ohne Subventionierung beherrschbar ist.
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Suggested Citation

  • Artavia, M. & Deppermann, A. & Filler, G. & Grethe, H. & Häger, A. & Kirschke, D. & Odening, M., 2011. "Ertrags- und Preisinstabilität auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland und der EU," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewipr:260268
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260268
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    1. Steinhorst, Martin P. & Bahrs, Enno, 2011. "Die Analyse der Rationalität im Verhalten von Stakeholdern des Agribusiness anhand eines Experiments," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114490, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Diekmann, Anton & Wolbert-Haverkamp, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2014. "Die Bewertung der Umstellung einer einjährigen Ackerkultur auf den Anbau von Miscanthus – Eine Anwendung des Realoptionsansatzes," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 260812, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    3. Martin Odening & Carsten Croonenbroeck & Rainer Kühl & Jörg Müller & Norbert Hirschauer & Oliver Mußhoff & Frank Offermann, 2018. "Extreme Weather and Drought Damage: Do Farmers Need Government Aid?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(20), pages 03-15, October.
    4. Ledebur, Oliver von & Schmitz, Jochen, 2012. "Price volatility on the German Agricultural Markets," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122534, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Würriehausen, Nadine & Lakner, Sebastian & Ihle, Rico, 2012. "Market integration of conventional and organic wheat in Germany," DARE Discussion Papers 1204, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    6. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2014. "What drives the German hog price cyle? Diagnostic modelling of a nonlinear dynamic system," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182822, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Steinhorst, Martin P. & Bahrs, Enno, 2012. "Renditeansprüche Im Kontext Gleichmäßiger Rückflüsse Ergebnisse Eines Experiments Mit Stakeholdern Des Agribusiness," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137390, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    8. Robert Finger & Nadja El Benni, 2012. "A Note on Price Risks in Swiss Crop Production – Empirical Results and Comparisons with other Countries," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 5(1), pages 131-151.
    9. Anastassiadis, Friederike & Liebe, Ulf & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Finanzielle Flexibilität In Landwirtschaftlichen Investitionsentscheidungen: Ein Discrete Choice Experiment," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137142, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    10. Würriehausen, Nadine & Lakner, Sebastian & Ihle, Rico, 2012. "Market integration of conventional and organic wheat in Germany," DARE Discussion Papers 1204, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    11. Finger, Robert, 2012. "How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122538, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Guenther-Luebbers, Welf & Henke, Soren & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2012. "Management of Volatility in the Grain Market," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122548, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Steinhorst, M.P. & Bahrs, E., 2012. "Die Analyse der Rationalität im Verhalten von Stakeholdern des Agribusiness anhand eines Experiments," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 47, March.

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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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