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Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    (Iqra University, Karachi, Pakistan)

  • Anwar Ul HAQ

    (Iqra University, Karachi, Pakistan)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Tehseen JAWAID & Anwar Ul HAQ, 2012. "Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(8(573)), pages 153-166, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:8(573):y:2012:i:8(573):p:153-166
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Syed Ali Raza, Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Do Liquidity and Financial Leverage Constrain the Impact of Firm Size and Dividend Payouts on Share Price in Emerging Economy," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 71-86, October.
    2. Godfrey Akileng & Eric Nzibonera & Micheal Mutegana, 2019. "The Influence of Foreign Exchange Volatility, Interest Rates on the Stock Performance of Uganda Securities Exchange," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 1-1.
    3. Donald A. Otieno & Rose W. Ngugi & Peter W. Muriu, 2019. "The impact of inflation rate on stock market returns: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 73-90, January.
    4. Ayub, Aishahton & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Prices of Islamic Banks: A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 58871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Daud, Ariff & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is there any relationship between exchange rate and investment ? evidence from Australia," MPRA Paper 110655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Donald A. Otieno & Rose W. Ngugi & Nelson H. W. Wawire, 2017. "Effects of Interest Rate on Stock Market Returns in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 40-50, August.
    8. Imtiaz Arif & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 365-378, April.
    9. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand, 2018. "The impact of interest rate volatility on financial market inclusion: evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 352-368, April.
    10. Saleem, 2016. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Private Investment: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 134-146, October.

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