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Modélisation séculaire du marché des transports de marchandises. (Modèle "S.D.FRET")

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Author Info

  • A.BONNAFOUS
  • O.GARCIA

Abstract

Cet article propose une modélisation du trafic de marchandises pour la France, qui couvre une période de cent cinquante ans (1841-1994). Trois résultats ressortent de cette étude cliométrique. Tout d'abord, l'élasticité du trafic total par rapport à la production industrielle chute après la première guerre mondiale. Ensuite, les performances des différents modes de transport (route, voie ferrée, voie d'eau) en termes de prix et d'offre déterminent les parts de marché dans le long terme. Enfin, nous échouons à mettre en évidence un impact de la pression du trafic de chaque mode sur le développement du réseau concerné.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative').

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): 33 (July)
Pages: 1265-1297

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Handle: RePEc:afc:ecosoc:y:2005:i:33:p:1265-1297

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Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org
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