Fluctuations in the momentum of growth within the capitalist epoch
AbstractThis paper reviews the history of cyclical and long wave analysis and examines the evidence on changes in the momentum of economic growth in 16 advanced capitalist countries from 1820 to 2001. It assesses the work of the main Business Cycle Research Institutes in Western Europe the USA and Russia, as well as that of Kondratieff, Kuznets, Schumpeter, Abramovitz and the long-wave revivalists-Rostow, Mandel and Mensch. It concludes that the existence of regular long-term rhythms in capitalist development is not proven, but distinguishes major changes in the momentum of growth due to disturbances of an ad hoc character. The role of system shocks and historical accidents is important but the role of policy error and success is also emphasised. It identifies five major phases of capitalist development since 1820.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History.
Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Business cycles; Long waves; Economic growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
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