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Forecasting Chinas Carbon Intensity -- Is China on Track to Comply with Its Copenhagen Commitment?

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  • Yuan Yang, Junjie Zhang, and Can Wang

Abstract

In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China's carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Yang, Junjie Zhang, and Can Wang, 2018. "Forecasting Chinas Carbon Intensity -- Is China on Track to Comply with Its Copenhagen Commitment?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-2-wang
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhong, Zhangqi & Guo, Zhifang & Zhang, Jianwu, 2021. "Does the participation in global value chains promote interregional carbon emissions transferring via trade? Evidence from 39 major economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Zhang, Ping & Shi, XunPeng & Sun, YongPing & Cui, Jingbo & Shao, Shuai, 2019. "Have China's provinces achieved their targets of energy intensity reduction? Reassessment based on nighttime lighting data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 276-283.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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