A Natural Experiment in Monetary Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market
AbstractThe third of three episodes in a major natural experiment in monetary policy that started more than 80 years ago is just now coming to an end. The experiment consists in observing the effect on the economy and the stock market of the monetary policies followed during and after three very similar periods of rapid economic growth in response to rapid technological change: the booms of the 1920s in the United States, the 1980s in Japan and the 1990s in the United States. In this experiment, the quantity of money is the counterpart of the experimenter's input. The performance of the economy and the level of the stock market are the counterpart of the experimenter's output. The results of this natural experiment are clear, at least for major ups and downs: what happens to the quantity of money has a determinative effect on what happens to national income and to stock prices. The results strongly support Anna Schwartz's and my 1963 conjecture about the role of monetary policy in the Great Contraction. They also support the view that monetary policy deserves much credit for the mildness of the recession that followed the collapse of the U.S. boom in late 2000.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Meixing DAI, 2009.
"On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime,"
Working Papers of BETA
2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dwyer, Gerald P. & Lothian, James R., 2012. "International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-9.
- Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009.
"The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
- James R. Lothian & Cornelia H. McCarthy, 2003. "The Behavior of Money and Other Economic Variables: Two Natural Experiments," International Finance 0311011, EconWPA.
- Meixing DAI, 2007. "A two-pillar strategy to keep inflation expectations at bay: A basic theoretical framework," Working Papers of BETA 2007-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Charles G. Leathers & J. Patrick Raines, 2012. "Intuitive psychology, natural experiments, and the Greenspan-Bernanke conceptual framework for responding to financial crises," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 281-295, March.
- Dai, Meixing, 2007.
"The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy,"
14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
- Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.