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The Marginal Propensity to Consume over the Business Cycle

Author

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  • Tal Gross
  • Matthew J. Notowidigdo
  • Jialan Wang

Abstract

We estimate how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of liquidity varies over the business cycle. Ten years after a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy flag is removed from the filer's credit report, generating an increase in credit score. In the year following flag removal, credit card limits increase by $778 and credit card balances increase by $290, implying an MPC of 0.37. Using cohorts of flag removals, we find that the MPC was 20 to 30 percent higher during the Great Recession, increased during the 2001 recession, and is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Jialan Wang, 2020. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 351-384, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:351-84
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160287
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Collinson & John Eric Humphries & Nicholas S. Mader & Davin K. Reed & Daniel I. Tannenbaum & Winnie van Dijk, 2022. "Eviction and Poverty in American Cities," NBER Working Papers 30382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pengpeng Yue & Aslihan Gizem Korkmaz & Zhichao Yin & Haigang Zhou, 2022. "The rise of digital finance: Financial inclusion or debt trap," Papers 2201.09221, arXiv.org.
    3. Hurtado, Agustin & Sakong, Jung, 2022. "The effect of minority bank ownership on minority credit," Working Papers 325, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    4. Prescott, Peter & Gjerde, Kathy Paulson, 2022. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States’ Resilience During the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), January.
    5. Scott L. Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2020. "Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data," Working Papers 20-12, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    6. Filipe Correia & Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago C. Silva, 2021. "Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees?," Working Papers Series 551, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Ezra Karger & Aastha Rajan, 2020. "Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments," Working Paper Series WP-2020-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 21 Feb 2021.
    8. Tal Gross & Timothy J. Layton & Daniel Prinz, 2022. "The Liquidity Sensitivity of Healthcare Consumption: Evidence from Social Security Payments," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 175-190, June.
    9. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    10. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    11. Nathan Blascak & Julia S. Cheney & Robert M. Hunt & Vyacheslav Mikhed & Dubravka Ritter & Michael Vogan, 2020. "Financial Consequences of Identity Theft," Working Papers 20-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Yue, Pengpeng & Korkmaz, Aslihan Gizem & Yin, Zhichao & Zhou, Haigang, 2022. "The rise of digital finance: Financial inclusion or debt trap?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    13. Nathan Blascak & Anna Tranfaglia, 2021. "Decomposing Gender Differences in Bankcard Credit Limits," Working Papers 21-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Cho, Daeha & Ma, Eunseong, 2023. "The heterogeneous welfare effects of business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. de Bruijn, Ernst-Jan & Vethaak, Heike & Koning, Pierre & Knoef, Marike, 2023. "Debt Relief for the Financially Vulnerable: Impact on Employment, Welfare Receipt, and Mental Health," IZA Discussion Papers 16336, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Max. A. Mosley & Edmund Cornforth, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effect of the UK’s 2022 Cost-of-Living Payments," Discussion Papers 2316, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Sun, Yang & Tang, Xinwei, 2022. "The impact of digital inclusive finance on sustainable economic growth in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Herkenhoff, Kyle & Phillips, Gordon M. & Cohen-Cole, Ethan, 2021. "The impact of consumer credit access on self-employment and entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 345-371.
    19. Manasi Deshpande & Tal Gross & Yalun Su, 2021. "Disability and Distress: The Effect of Disability Programs on Financial Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-178, April.
    20. Lorenzo Nalin & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2020. "Balance Sheet Effects of a Currency Devaluation: A Stock-Flow Consistent Framework for Mexico?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_980, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Scott L. Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2023. "Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1667-1701, October.
    22. Nathan Blascak & Julia S. Cheney & Robert M. Hunt & Vyacheslav Mikhed & Dubravka Ritter & Michael Vogan, 2021. "Financial Consequences of Severe Identity Theft in the U.S," Working Papers 21-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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