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Failure to Launch: Housing, Debt Overhang, and the Inflation Option

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  • Aaron Hedlund

Abstract

Can inflating away nominal mortgage liabilities effectively combat recessions? I address this question using a model of illiquid housing, endogenous credit supply, and equilibrium default. I show that, in an ordinary recession, temporarily raising the inflation target has only modest or even counterproductive effects. However, during episodes like the Great Recession, inflation effectively boosts house prices, consumption, and dramatically cuts foreclosures, but only when fixed-rate mortgages are the dominant instrument. The quantitative implications of inflation also vary if other nominal rigidities or demand externalities are present. In the cross section, inflation delivers especially large gains to highly leveraged homeowners.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Failure to Launch: Housing, Debt Overhang, and the Inflation Option," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 228-274, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:228-74
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160371
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Roman Sustek, 2022. "A Back-of-the-Envelope Analysis of House Prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp737, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Berisha, Edmond & Meszaros, John, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of wealth inequality dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 153-165.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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